Birmingham (h) – The Preview

14/01/19

City face a resurgent Blues side on Friday night, who are slowly edging their way into play-off contention. Jon Punt spoke to The Football Lab's Gabriel Sutton to preview the match

Jon: Brum seem to have been quietly going about their business for some time now. Winless in the league until 22 September, now on the cusp of the play off pack. It all looked so gloomy during August with the shadow of a transfer embargo looming large. Does that make the job Garry Monk has done even more remarkable?

Gabriel: Very much so. He had his hands tied in the summer with the off-field issues, which meant we could only sign left-back Kristian Pedersen on a permanent deal so the fact that a play-off push is even being talked about is testament to the job Garry Monk, Pep Clotet and the coaching team have done.
If you look at our usual substitutes bench, there’s three or four academy graduates on it and while it’s great in some ways to see youth coming through, it does mean that we rely heavily on our first eleven.
The advantage of that is that the system rarely changes and thus you have 11 players who know exactly what their jobs are; Monk should be credited there, because he has given this club some level-headed leadership and created a team-centred mentality. However, it helps that we’ve not had too many injuries as well.

Don’t talk to us about injuries. The loss of Leitner and Buendia recently has seen a bit of a downturn in form. That said, Buendia came back last weekend and Stiepermann should return in time for Friday so we’ll be near to full strength again.

Based on the limited resources Monk has at his disposal, is it fair to say you’ve gone a bit more direct in search of a winning formula? From the brief highlights I’ve seen it seems Jutkiewicz is the focal point for anything meaningful in the final third?

Also – has he won you over? I remember you saying you weren’t his biggest fan before the season started?

Stiepermann’s really come on for your lot this season, hasn’t he? From the outside, I still can’t tell what his best position is but maybe it’s his flexibility is starting to turn into a positive?

Jukey has converted me, big time. I think he compliments the nippy Che Adams very well because he’s strong in the air, he occupies centre-backs and will hold the ball up for other players. I’d imagine he’s having his best season for some time – although if I were being slightly greedy, I’d like him to get a bit closer to his October and November form goalscoring wise.

We rely massively on our front two for goals and thankfully Adams is having a nice purple patch.

Stiepermann has been a revelation ever since Farke placed his faith in him, predominantly in a number 10 role. It’s definitely where he’s looked strongest for City – he can occupy pockets of space where he can collect the ball and drive at times, but perhaps more importantly (and arguably what we’ve been missing since he’s been injured) he’s a physical presence. When we go long he’s almost playing as a second striker. Certainly when we press teams he’ll be high up the pitch. Marco nicking the ball off defenders has certainly led to a fair few goals/chances this term.

Seeing as you’re a man who has a broad knowledge of the EFL, how surprised have you been by Norwich this season? Can you see us going up automatically or would you place your money elsewhere?

You have taken me by surprise. When you first came down I got a sense it was a case of “same squad, we’ve got to go up this season”, the year after it was “we want to try to challenge, but we also want to have a long-term plan” and this year it was almost “might as well have another developmental season”.

I find it curious that the year where pre-season expectations were the most modest, you’ve produced what looks like the most convincing challenge yet.

In many ways, I admire that Stuart Webber has stood by Daniel Farke and had such strong belief in his coaching capabilities, because if it’d gone wrong this season – as the first 10 games suggested it could do – there’d be a lot of talk of how the club has stagnated and lost its ambition.

Instead, you’ve put together not only one of the best teams in the league, but probably the most exciting team, too.

I think that’s probably a fair assessment and was especially the case among our supporter base. Anywhere in the top 10 would have represented progress. The fact that we’ve bedded in a further three academy graduates making it four starting most games, all while sustaining a challenge at the top end of the league, is quite remarkable.

We haven’t ever really had a fully fit squad to choose from either. Injuries to Hanley, Pukki, Stiepermann, Klose, Leitner and Buendia have threatened to hamper our progress and yet we’re still up there. If we can get everyone fit and firing we could have a real chance.

How are Brum likely to set up on Friday night then? Your results against the bigger teams seem to have been pretty decent so far, has there been a magic formula behind that?

We’ll be 4-4-2 (or a kind of 4-2-2-2 if we’re being technical) with two ball-winners in Maikel Kieftenbeld who is a right, turbo-charged warrior, plus one of the Gardner brothers.

The formula is probably that our best attacking play comes in transition, because that’s where Jota (left-footer on the right) and Mags (vice-versa) find that space in central areas.

What I thought Boro got right on Saturday was playing five central midfielders to at times force them to attack on the outside, where they tend to be less effective (and we maybe don’t have the quality in deeper areas handy when the front four aren’t at it).

What gives me some hope against your lot is that I’d expect Aarons and Lewis to push high up, meaning there could be opportunities for us to bring that front four into play very quickly.

Aarons and Lewis seem to have that understanding which many good fullback pairings do, in that when one pushes on the other will stay, or at least check that Alex Tettey is covering, so I’d hope you don’t hurt us via that avenue. You’re best to start practicing free kicks, as second phase set pieces are where we’ve been shaky for most of the season.

I’d also say the template WBA adopted first half, where they pressed our back line very effectively, might be a model we see other teams adopt to try and negate our keep ball tactics. Hopefully, when Leitner returns especially, we’ll have enough to play our way out of trouble and get on the front foot.

Is there anyone you will be particularly fearing come kick off?

Yeah, was chatting to Albion fans in my local who reckoned they probably should have beaten you.

I think we’ve got the personnel to press teams effectively because we’ve got a set of players who give everything for the cause and there’s some real athletes in there.

As for who I’d fear, I thought Onel Hernandez was outstanding in the reverse fixture and I’d imagine you feel his return a month or so ago was pretty timely.

Your Cantwells and your Buendias seem to like creating in central areas and have really impressed me this season, but I just think Hernandez offers that something different, that willingness to run at people.

Not sure how long Leitner is out for – but do you think Vrancic or McLean are capable of filling that void?

When Leitner is in full flow there isn’t a midfielder in the division I’d rather have, his range of passing and vision is majestic. He should return by the end of the month all going well. That said, Vrancic is a great deputy in that playmaker role and has added a bit of steel to his game. McLean is definitely one to watch, although City fans probably can’t tell you where his best position is yet. I can’t see him being as effective as a Buendia or Stiepermann in an attacking trio, but he’s definitely like having a new signing after a lengthy lay-off.

Should make for a decent game then. Prediction time please….. I’m going for a 2-0 Norwich win, courtesy of 77th and 87th minute Pukki poacher style goals. You?

That sounds a bit early for Pukki. I’ll go for 2-2, reckon we’ll do you on the break in the first half but you’ll keep your composure and eventually find a way past us with Teemu probably equalising in the 95th minute.

Ha, Pukki scores when he wants. Good luck for the season Gab (after Friday of course)

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